This page tracks the official cash rate and what rate changes mean for your home loan. We update it after each Reserve Bank decision, so if you like to get updates you can bookmark this page instead of hunting through old announcements.
Where the cash rate sits now
- Official cash rate: 4.60%
- Last decision: increased by 0.25% at the September 2026 meeting, announced 29 September 2026
- Next decision: 3 November 2026
The September 2026 decision
The Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, and the decision was unanimous. It is the fourth increase this year, it takes the cash rate up by a full 1% since January, and it is the highest the cash rate has been since late 2011.
The Board said inflation remains elevated and that the upside risks it flagged back in August are now materialising. The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are much higher than the Reserve Bank assumed when it published its August forecasts. Higher fuel prices have started to feed through into the prices of other goods and services. Demand driven by artificial intelligence is pushing up global prices for technology goods, and businesses are reporting cost pressures that they are either passing on or looking to pass on.
The Board acknowledged that its three earlier increases have tightened conditions and that the economy appears to be slowing, with housing prices falling in most capital cities and new home loans down noticeably. Its judgement was that inflation is still too high and a further tightening was warranted. The statement repeated that the Board will raise the cash rate again if it needs to.
What the economists are saying
Almost nobody was caught out. A Reuters poll found 33 of 34 economists expecting the increase, all four major banks had forecast it, and financial markets had it around 90% priced on the morning of the meeting. CBA, Westpac and ANZ all brought their calls forward from November during September, mostly on higher oil prices and on how senior Reserve Bank officials spoke at a parliamentary hearing on 18 September.
The argument now is about November. ANZ expects a fifth increase on Melbourne Cup Day, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%. CBA has 4.60% as the peak in its base case, but flags a follow up if the next quarterly inflation figures come in hot. NAB and Westpac both describe another increase as a risk rather than their base case. In Finder’s survey, 48% of experts expect one more rise before the end of the year.
Here is what the increase looks like on a $600,000 loan with 25 years left to run, going from a rate of 6.25% to 6.50%.
- Repayment before: $3,958 a month
- Repayment after: $4,051 a month
- Difference: $93 a month, or about $1,120 a year
Counting all four increases this year, that same loan is now costing about $367 a month more than it was in January. If your loan is a different size, the calculator below will do the sums on your own numbers.
On how that lands, EY Oceania chief economist Cherelle Murphy said the fourth increase will hurt many households, but that from the Reserve Bank’s point of view, inflation staying too high hurts more.
Work out what it means for your loan
Put in your own numbers to see what a rate change does to your monthly repayment. This assumes principal and interest repayments and that your lender passes the change on in full, so treat it as a guide rather than a quote.
Our broker’s take
Chief executive and founder of mortgage broker Well Money, Scott Spencer, says this increase will be felt more than the three earlier ones. “The first few this year came off a lower base and a lot of people absorbed them without changing much. This is the fourth, the cash rate is the highest it has been in 15 years, and for plenty of households the buffer they had in January has gone.”
His advice is to work out the actual number rather than wait for it. “Your lender will write to you with the new rate and the date it starts, usually a few weeks away. Do not wait for the first higher repayment to land to find out what it is. Work it out now, because if it is going to be tight, that is a much better conversation to have early.”
He says a rising market is exactly when it pays to look around. “The gap between what new customers are offered and what existing customers pay gets wider every time rates move. Competition between lenders is still strong and there are good options out there, but nobody is going to ring you up and offer you a better rate. You have to go and ask for it.”
That is the part we do for a living. We are mortgage brokers, so we compare across a panel of bank and non-bank lenders, and we know how each one reads a file. Call us on 1300 899 724 or book a time to talk it through.
What a cash rate change means for your loan
A change to the official cash rate does not automatically change your home loan rate. Lenders set their own rates and decide separately whether to pass a movement on, in full, in part, or not at all. They also choose their own effective date, which is usually a few weeks after the announcement.
If you are on a fixed rate, nothing changes until your fixed period ends. If you are on a variable rate, your lender will write to you with any change and when it takes effect.
Will my repayments change automatically?
It depends on how your direct debit is set up.
- Direct debit set to the minimum repayment: this adjusts on its own.
- Direct debit set to a fixed amount you nominated: this keeps taking the same amount. If rates rose, you may need to increase it. If rates fell, you can leave it and pay your loan down faster.
- Paying manually: you need to adjust the amount yourself.
Your exact new repayment is confirmed once the change takes effect, not on the day of the announcement.
If you have a Well Money managed loan
Each funder confirms its own decision after a Reserve Bank announcement. You will get a letter setting out any change to your rate and the date it applies from, sent to your nominated postal or email address.
Rate decisions for existing customers can differ from the rates advertised to new customers. If you want to know where your loan sits against what is currently available, that is worth a conversation rather than a guess.
If rates are moving against you
A rising rate environment is the point at which the gap between what existing customers pay and what new customers are offered tends to widen. It is worth checking rather than assuming your rate is still competitive.
- Why rates differ for new and existing customers
- What it costs to refinance
- Why the rate on its own is not the whole picture
- What to do if you are struggling with repayments
Previous decisions
11 August 2026: hold at 4.35%. The second hold in a row, and unanimous. June quarter inflation came in softer than the Reserve Bank’s own forecast, with headline at 3.8% and trimmed mean at 3.6%, which took an August increase off the table. The Board kept saying inflation was too high and that it would move again if the risks it was watching came through, which is what happened six weeks later. Read the full August 2026 update.
16 June 2026: hold at 4.35%. The Board paused after three increases in a row, and the decision was unanimous. It said headline and underlying inflation were both still too high, and that while oil prices had eased, energy and most related commodity prices were still above where they sat before the conflict in the Middle East began. The statement added a line about raising the cash rate further if required, which was read at the time as a deliberate signal that the increases might not be finished. Read the full June 2026 update.
February, March and May 2026: three increases of 0.25% each. These took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35% in the space of four months. Inflation had picked up sharply through the second half of 2025, and the Board moved at three meetings in a row to pull it back.